Highway Trust Fund Revenues Grow Beyond Previous Projections

What happened: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the official scorekeeper for revenues and budget forecasts for Congress, recently updated receipts and future projections for the Highway Trust Fund (HTF). HTF revenue for 2025 outpaced prior projections by $2 billion, leading the CBO to revise upward its future user fee collections.

The largest change in CBO’s projections comes from projected gasoline tax revenue, which they previously predicted would decline by $10 billion over the next decade. CBO now says gasoline tax revenue will slightly grow over the next 10 years, likely augmented by the elimination of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit and greenhouse gas emissions target changes for vehicles implemented by the Trump administration.

According to Federal Highway Administration data, vehicle miles traveled also increased in 2025, which if this trend continues, will help stabilize HTF revenue derived from motor fuels taxes.

Why it matters: Congress relies on CBO to determine how much HTF revenue will be needed to offset outlays for the next surface transportation law. The most recent update appears to reduce the amount needed for the next five-year bill (2027-2031) by approximately $30 billion.

What’s next: While these developments are positive, Congress will still need to find approximately $220 billion in additional HTF revenue to pay for investments that grow from current levels.